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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.